Hur menar du nu? Ska jag sälja guldet och silvret du rekomenderade oss att köpa förra veckan? Jag är all in där och väntar fortfarande på uppgången i dom.
Ligger du i bull så ligg kvar så länge, ny information har kommit fram under kvällen. Det såg ut att komma en ny nedåt våg men efter att ha studerat den senaste statistiken verkar det komma ett uppåtrally. Återkommer imorn med mer info då jag får den. Så länge håll tillgodo med nedan info.
evidence that gold and silver have bottomed and the dollar is close to a peak
A major brainstorming session and rethink is currently underway at "Maund Acres" as a result of reviewing the latest truly extraordinary COT figures. We had already observed the potentially strongly bullish Reversal Days put in by gold and silver last Monday, when a large "bull hammer" candlestick appeared on the gold chart and a giant outstanding "dragonfly doji" appeared on the silver chart, but later in the week were discouraged by the threat to the broad stockmarket. However, the concern regarding the broad stockmarket would appear to be misplaced, as the Rydex money market funds have surged this past week, without a concomitant drop in the stockmarket, suggesting that negative sentiment is rising to the extreme levels that precede a reversal to the upside, and in addition the Commercials short positions in the dollar ! have risen to an extreme, a very high level indeed that has almost always in the past marked a reversal to the downside in the dollar. If the dollar drops back significantly soon it will mean two things. One is that the stockmarket should rise, to compensate for the falling dollar. The other is that gold and silver - and commodities generally - will have "the wind at their back" again, which brings us to the point about the extraordinary COT figures. For the Commercial short position in gold has fallen to its most bullish level for a long, long time and the Commercial's short positions in silver are now at record bullish levels (the Commercials have NEVER been net long silver). When we combine these facts about the COTs with the positive price action in gold and silver last week with their Reversal Days, we can readily see that we have a very strong case for this being a bottom here. So it is a good thing that we liquidated our short positions in the sector last week.
All this is good news indeed, except of course for one thing - we went ahead and bought Puts in bank stocks yesterday, and if our latest interpretation is correct, that was a mistake. However, there is no need to worry - in the first place the Puts rose significantly in price on Friday, so unless we are very unlucky and the market storms ahead at the open, you should be able to ditch them close to the open on Monday for at best a modest profit, and at worst at about the same price. In the second place it may take days or even weeks for sentiment to recover and a significant rally to gain traction - and the Commercials often position themselves ahead of market moves in their favor (of course). So there is no need to panic - just go ahead and sell the Puts on Monday morning, and, of course, we will not now be buying bear ETFs as was our original plan.
One other point - how do we reconcile these positive indications with the broadening top patterns identified in the stock index charts? - this is more complex and we will be looking at this in the next Gold Market update to be posted tomorrow, but what we can say here is this. The large stock XAU index is right down on the lower boundary of its broadening pattern, where there is of course strong support, and what frequently happens with these broadening patterns is that the price (or index value) breaks out of the top of it and races away in a spectacular rally before finally reversing. This is what could happen here and if it does we are looking at PM stock prices a long, long way above where they are now.
One other thing we will of course be doing in coming days is sifting through PM stocks to find the ones best placed to take part in the sector rally that is now expected, and we will of course highlight Call options in same for more sporting subscribers.
The purpose of this update is to give you as much time to readjust your thinking as possible ahead of next week's trading, as I have had to do today. In tomorrow's new Gold and Silver Market updates we will be examining the Reversal Days in gold and silver last week and the latest strongly bullish COTs.
